WSJ - tax liens triggering foreclosures

A report released this week by the National Consumer Law Center (NCLC), says the number of foreclosures tied to delinquent tax payments is climbing. The NCLC, an advocacy group, estimates that $15 billion of tax-lien foreclosures happened in 2010, the latest year for which data are available. Rising tax-lien problems stem from two overlapping trends associated with the weak economy: To close budget deficits, some local governments are increasing proxy taxes to raise additional revenue. But a growing number of homeowners, many unemployed or living on fixed incomes, are finding those tax bills—even before rate increases—a strain. When homeowners fail to pay, municipalities have the legal authority to foreclose or auction off the tax lien to debt collectors, who can charge interest rates as high as 50% on the outstanding balances. If the homeowner doesn't pay—the deadlines to do so vary across the nation—many states allow the tax-lien holders to take ownership of the properties and resell them. While the sales are causing distress for some homeowners, they reflect hard fiscal realities at the state and municipal level. "Cities and towns are facing their own budget problems and of course need homeowners to make prompt tax payments," says John Rao, an NCLC attorney who wrote the report. Homeowners are slipping on tax payments for the same reasons they are falling behind on mortgage payments, Mr. Rao said: "They're unemployed, or underemployed, expenses have gone up, and you don't have enough money." Advocates for the elderly and the unemployed, the groups most at risk of losing their homes, say it isn't uncommon for consumers with homes valued at hundreds of thousands of dollars to lose the properties after failing to pay a few thousand dollars in taxes. "The system is really counterintuitive," said Laura Newland, an attorney with AARP, an advocacy group for people age 50 and older. "Some of the properties that are most vulnerable are the ones without a mortgage." (Local taxes on homes with a mortgage are often paid by the mortgage lender, which collects taxes from homeowners in their monthly payments.) Frank Alexander, a professor who specializes in tax-law foreclosures at Emory University's law school, said municipal governments selling tax liens are being shortsighted. "It creates short-term cash, but generates long-term problems," he said, pointing out that tax-lien sales and tax foreclosures often spark legal challenges that can last for years and prove costly for homeowners and municipal governments.

shame on the GOP candidates

shame on the GOP candidates

"Shame on the Republican candidates for president. Shame on them for showing up at debate specifically targeting the US economy with not one credible, rational, even reputable notion of what to do about the nation's housing mess. It baffles the mind that this sector of the economy, responsible for about 18 percent of the nation's gross domestic product, is in freefall, and yet eight potential new leaders of this nation not only don't understand the problem but don't have a clue what to do about it. My favorite, and I write this with as much sarcasm as a computer keyboard will afford, is the argument that the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill is to blame for housing's current despair. Foreclosures, falling home prices, negative equity, nil consumer confidence, record low home building...yep, gotta be Dodd-Frank. 'If the Republican House next week would repeal Dodd-Frank and allow us to put pressure on the Senate to repeal Dodd-Frank, you would see the housing market start to improve overnight,' Speaker Newt Gingrich told the crowd in Michigan last night. His reasoning is that, 'It kills small banks, it kills small business.'

Increased regulation has certainly made the life of a banker today tougher, but the fact that there was zero regulation ten years ago allowed and encouraged reckless behavior on Wall Street. It created the supremely negligent subprime mortgage
trading bonanza that brought down big banks, little banks and homeowners alike...and threatened to take down the entire US economy. Were we to do nothing to change that? And Mr. Gingrich, if I may, how would repealing Dodd-Frank suddenly help the 4 million borrowers behind on their mortgages today and the 2.2 million in the foreclosure process today keep their homes? How would it put a bottom on home prices? Do you honestly believe that it would suddenly open the mortgage markets wide, allow banks to somehow fix all the troubled loans on their books and fuel a gigantic lending spree that would ignite home buying and selling again like the good old days? Is that even what we want? Let me just finish with Mr. Gingrich's last note, 'The banks are actually profiting more by foreclosing than encouraging short sales.' That's just flat out wrong.

To begin with what bank has ever profited from a foreclosure OR a short sale? Industry sources tell me that a short sale nets the bank on average 20 percent more than a foreclosure. Short sales speed up the time frame for disposal of the property as well, as foreclosures can take years to process. During that time, foreclosed borrowers can destroy the property, flushing cement down the toilet and stealing everything in the home that is and isn't nailed down. In a short sale, the homeowner lives in the home until the deal is done, and because they are not getting a huge hit to their credit and being kicked out by a sheriff's deputy, they generally don't destroy the house. In a short sale, the bank knows exactly what it's getting, unlike in a foreclosure when the bank has to take back the house in some unknown condition, market it and re-sell it at an unknown distressed price. 'Nuff said.

My second favorite argument is that it's all Fannie and Freddie's fault, and if we take them down, housing comes back in a flash. 'For these geniuses to give 10 of their top executives bonuses at $12 million and then have the guts to come to the American people and say, 'Give us another $13 billion to bail us out just for the quarter,' that's lunacy,' Rep. Michelle Bachmann argued on CNBC last night. 'We need to put them back into bankruptcy and get them out of business. They're destroying the housing market.' No question, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are bleeding money, costing the taxpayers billions already and potentially billions more in the near future. Something needs to be done to change that, but 'bankrupting' Fannie and Freddie would take down the US economy as we know it, and it boggles the mind that a person running for president wouldn't understand that. She in fact noted that Fannie and Freddie support the bulk of the mortgage market. That's true. Without them there would be no lending. Does she think the private market would just come running back in and give the nation's beleaguered borrowers 3.99 percent 30-year fixed across the board? Only Herman Cain seemed to get that. He argued that we need to fix unemployment first with his various proposals. 'Okay. After I did those three things that I outlined, then deal with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. You don't start solving a problem right in the middle of it. So we've got to do that first,' he reasoned.

Fixing unemployment was the only housing plan the candidates could offer. When CNBC's Maria Bartiromo asked Governor Mitt Romney, 'Not one of your 59 points in your economic plan mentions or addresses housing. Can you tell us why?' He responded, 'Yes, because it's not a housing plan. It's a jobs plan.' I don't love that answer, but at least I can respect it. 'Our friends in Washington today, they say, 'Oh, if we've got a problem in housing, let's let government play a bigger role.' That's the wrong way to go. Let markets work. Help people get back to work. Let them buy homes. You'll see home prices come back up if we allow this market to work,' argued Romney. There are plenty of analysts who agree that the market needs to work itself out, as painful as that may be to average Americans, many of whom are in line to lose their homes. Until the foreclosure mess runs its course, and all those homes are filled with borrowers who can afford them, home prices will not recover, plain and simple, goes the argument. I'm not saying here that the Obama Administration has done anything particular stellar to stimulate a housing recovery. A small refinance program for underwater borrowers isn't the cure-all, and forcing banks to write down mortgage principal is not politically nor technically feasible. But without some plan, this crisis could go on for a decade, like it did in Japan, as President Clinton noted recently in an interview. I'm not saying I have the answer, the great plan to fix our nation's housing crisis. But I'm not running for president."

housing should be the priority

National Association of Realtors (NAR) President Ron Phipps spoke at the New Solutions for America’s Housing Crisis forum, where he joined a panel of experts to discuss solutions for addressing the country’s housing and economic challenges. The event was hosted by Economic Policies for the 21st Century and the Progressive Policy Institute. “As the leading advocate for homeownership, Realtors® know that issues like affordable financing, natural disaster insurance, the mortgage interest
deduction, and foreclosures and short sales don’t just affect people who own a home – homeownership shapes communities and strengthens the nation’s economy,” said Phipps, broker-president of Phipps Realty in Warwick, R.I. “America needs strong public policies that promote responsible, sustainable homeownership and that will help stabilize the nation’s housing market to support an economic recovery.” Phipps said that housing is not recovering at the rate it should be and called on legislators and regulators to do no harm. He said that proposed legislation and regulatory rules or changes to homeownership tax benefits need to help America out of today’s economic struggles and not further harm consumer confidence or exacerbate problems within the fragile real estate industry.

Overly stringent standards and lower mortgage loan limits are preventing qualified borrowers from getting loans, and Phipps called on lenders and regulators to reduce the overcorrection in underwriting standards for mortgages. He urged support for
policies that ensure qualified borrowers can obtain safe and sound mortgages in all markets at all times and encourage sound lending without high downpayment requirements. “Realtors® support strong underwriting, but too-stringent standards are curtailing the ability of creditworthy consumers from obtaining mortgages to purchase a home, and that’s impacting the recovery,” said Phipps. “Making mortgages available to creditworthy home buyers and streamlining loan modifications and short sales will help stabilize and revitalize the housing industry and reduce the rising inventory of foreclosed homes.” Phipps recommended that political and industry leaders work together to help reshape real estate and put the country BOAk on the right track. “Our goal is to help ensure that anyone in this country who aspires to own their own home and can afford to do so is not denied the opportunity to build their future through homeownership,” Phipps said.

IMF downgrades economic outlook

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has sharply downgraded its outlook for the US economy through 2012 because of weak growth and concern that Europe won't be able to solve its debt crisis. The international lending organization expects the US economy to grow just 1।5% this year and 1।8% in 2012. That's down from its June forecast of 2.5% in 2011 and 2.7% next year. The IMF has also lowered its outlook for the 17 countries that use the euro. It predicts 1.6% growth this year and 1.1% next year, down from its June projections of 2% and 1.7%, respectively. The gloomier forecast for Europe is based on worries that Greece will default on its debt and destabilize the region. Overall, the IMF predicts global growth of 4% for both years. Stronger growth in China, India, Brazil and other developing countries should offset weaker output in the United States and Europe. The US economy grew at an annual rate of just 0.7% in the first six months of the year. And the US unemployment rate has stayed above 9% for all but two months since the recession officially ended two years to Financial turmoil and slow growth are feeding on each other in both the United States and Europe, IMF officials say. Europe's debt crisis is causing banks to reduce lending and hold onto cash. Sharp stock market drops in the United States over the summer have hurt consumer and business confidence and will likely reduce spending. That slows growth, which leads many investors to shift money out of stocks and into safer investments, such as Treasury bonds. In Europe, slower growth will make it harder for stressed nations to get their debt under control. US and European policymakers need to act more decisively to cut budget deficits, the IMF said. And European officials need to ensure that the region's banks have enough capital to withstand the debt crisis. The IMF said in its report that the US economy faces longer-lasting problems that go beyond high gas prices and disruptions caused by the Japan crisis. Employers are adding few jobs and giving out meager pay raises. Many homeowners owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Banks are keeping credit tight.

Refinance Applications Increase

Mortgage applications increased 4.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 12, 2011. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 4.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3.6 percent compared with the previous week and was 13.5 percent lower than a year ago. The Refinance Index increased 8.0 percent from the previous week, but was 16.3 percent lower than the same week last year. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 9.1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 10.1 percent compared with the previous week and was 1.1 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Unprecedented volatility in the stock market last week amid additional signs that the economy has slowed led to further drops in mortgage rates, with the 15-year rate teaching a new low for the MBA survey,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President
of Research and Economics. Fratantoni continued, “The big differences in refinance volumes were likely driven by the decisions of some lenders not to drop rates last week, largely due to the need to manage their pipelines.” The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 6.9 percent. The four week moving average is down 2.2 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 10.1 percent for the Refinance Index. The adjustable-rate mortgage
(ARM) share of activity decreased to 5.8 percent from 6.1 percent of total applications from the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.32 percent from 4.37 percent. The 30-year fixed contract rate has decreased for three straight weeks and is at a new low
for this year.

MBA - homeownership may drop further

The drop in the homeownership rate from an all-time high of 69.2% in 2004 to 66.4% in the first quarter of 2011 reflects a decline from unsustainable levels to something closer to historicalaverages, according to a study released today by Mortgage Banker's Association's (MBA) Research Institute for Housing America (RIHA). While the homeownership rate may have bottomed out, it could fall another one or two percentage points because of tightened credit and other factors, the paper says. Titled "Homeownership Boom and Bust 2000 to 2009: Where Will the Homeownership Rate Go from Here?," the study was conducted by professors Stuart Gabriel of UCLA's Anderson School and Stuart Rosenthal of Syracuse University. They found that the increase in the homeownership rate in the middle of the last decade extended to all age groups but was most pronounced among individuals under age 30. These increases coincided with looser credit conditions that enhanced household access to mortgage credit, along with less risk-averse attitudes toward investment in homeownership. Following the crash, these trends have reversed and homeownership rates have largely reverted to the levels of 2000.

"How much more might the homeownership rate fall? The answer depends on uncertain forecasts of attitudes towards homeownership and changes in the credit market and economic conditions," concluded Rosenthal. "If underwriting conditions and attitudes about investing in homeownership settle back to year-2000 patterns and, if the socioeconomic and demographic traits of the population look similar to those of 2000, then the homeownership rate may have bottomed out and will not decline further. If, instead, household employment, earnings and other socioeconomic characteristics over the next few years remain similar to those in 2009, then homeownership rates could fall by up to another 1 to 2%age points beyond 2011. Those declines are likely to be greatest in cities and regions in which house prices were most volatile in the last decade."

URGENT!! WE NEED YOUR HELP

The Federal Reserve, which received sweeping new authority under the Obama regulatory reauthorization, wants to effectively eliminate seller-held (a.k.a. purchase money) mortgages. It will do this by enacting a rule for the Dodd-Frank Act prohibiting property sellers from taking back a mortgage unless the buyer essentially can qualify for conventional financing!

What's more, Ma and Pa Homeowner, who create 95% of seller-held mortgages, won't be able to qualify buyers under the same underwriting standards that banks are required to perform, and therefore the cash flow notes won't be created.

If this is enacted it also will remove access to housing for millions of Americans, because seller "financing" is the only way people who can't qualify for conventional loans can buy a house.

Moreover, it would allow a buyer a three year right of rescission (they can cancel the sale) if the seller did not properly qualify them. The right of rescission also applies to anyone who buys the note.

We have precious little time to try to stop this. The deadline to comment is FRIDAY, July 22.

Go to: http://snipurl.com/t2cfq
Then go to snipurl.com/AbilityToRepay to submit your comment to the Federal Reserve.

Please do it TODAY!!

(Thanks to Ric Thom [ www.SecurityEscrow.com] for alerting us.)

Submit your comments at snipurl.com/AbilityToRepay -- scroll down that page for the comments link. THE DEADLINE IS FRIDAY, JULY 22!

Here Are Some Points You Can Make In Your Comments:

• Seller "financing" provides housing for millions who otherwise could not qualify for conventional loans.
  
  
• Homeowners are not bank officers or mortgage lenders. By requiring them (many if not most of whom who take back a mortgage are elderly) to qualify buyers using bank standards means they will simply refuse to sell with owner financing. Thus millions of people will be deprived of home ownership.
  
  
• Why should the buyer be required to divulge their income and assets to the very person with whom they are negotiating the terms of a sale? This is not required when there is a 3rd party lender.
  
  
• Requiring the buyer to turn over all their financial information to a stranger opens the door for identification theft and fraud.
  
  
• This also creates the opportunity for predatory borrowing. This is where an unscrupulous buyer knowledgeable about the Dodd-Frank Act leads an uninformed seller (and this will be the majority of sellers) into negotiations not in compliance with the ability-to-repay requirements. (An example of that could be a balloon, an interest rate greater than 1.49% above a standard mortgage, or the seller did not know how to calculate the income-to-debt ratio correctly, or know what residual income means). That buyer lives in the property trying to resell it for a profit and if they are not successful within three years they rescind the sale and get all their money back.
  
  
• By not allowing them to negotiate a balloon payment, there is a good chance that a seller 55 years or older will die before receiving all their equity. A lot of seniors have invested in real property with the intent of selling it using seller financing (an installment sale) in order to supplement their income in retirement, but also with the hope that they would not be stuck with a 30 year investment. The Dodd-Frank Act does the same thing insurance companies do who sell 30 year annuities to seniors. Our government has criticized this deplorable practice because seniors will die before they receive all their investment.
  
  
• The restriction of no balloon doesn't affect just seniors, it has financial consequences for anyone using seller financing. Under the Dodd-Frank Act community banks are allowed to originate fully amortizing loans with a five year balloon. The rationale is that they hold these loans in their own portfolios and the government recognizes their need to hedge against inflation and rising interest rates. Yet, the Act does not recognize that private property owners who have 100% skin in the game need the same protection. A five year balloon is predatory lending. If there has to be a restriction it should at the very least be the same allowance given to community banks of a balloon in 5 years.
  
  
• There are a lot of small builders that have a spec house or two that they can't sell unless they offer great terms using seller financing. Otherwise they have to let these properties go back to the bank, which does not help housing or the economy.
  
  
• It has been said that a seller financing the sale of his or her own property would completely avoid the issue of licensing by retaining the services of a licensed loan originator. If a mortgage loan originator (MLO) fails to properly follow the ability-to-repay guidelines the buyer still has three years in which to rescind the sale which leaves the seller at risk and will most likely bankrupt them.
  
  Go to http://snipurl.com/t2cfq
  Then submit your comments at snipurl.com/AbilityToRepay -- scroll down that page for the comments link.

THE DEADLINE IS FRIDAY, JULY 22!

household shifts could affect recovery

"Every now and then you need to take a step back and put the housing market into perspective, take a break from all the monthly motions and commotions, stress and distress. Today I read a report that did just that. It takes a big-picture snapshot of how housing has fundamentally changed over the past several decades, which could have a big impact on its future as the industry rebuilds itself, literally and economically.

The report, from John Burns Real Estate Consulting's Chris Porter, is titled simply, Tremendous Demographic Shift.' And the numbers are pretty tremendous. 'The number of non-family households—people living alone or households that do not have any members related to the householder—has increased nearly five times in the last 50 years, from 7.9 million to 39.2 million. At the same time, the number of family households has increased by just 1.7 times, from 45.1 million to 77.5 million,' according to Porter. In addition, married couples have dropped to less than half of all US households from 75% in 1960. So let's think about the current housing stock, much of which is more than 50 years old. We've recently seen a downsizing trend for several reasons, namely the weak economy and builders constructing cheaper homes to meet the demand but also the environmental movement and the high cost of energy.

But this comes right after the 'McMansion' era when oversized homes were all the rage. Those homes, of course, still exist in vast quantities, despite the fact that there are, according to this report, fewer big family households and therefore less need for large square footage. We've also talked a lot about the surge in renting; we've blamed it on the housing crash, fear of buying into a depreciating market and the tight credit conditions that are pricing many potential buyers out.

Perhaps there's more to it than that as well. Perhaps with fewer large family households and less desire for a big space, smaller, full-service rental apartments are more desirable to a growing segment of the population. 'Family households are more likely to stretch for size over location. Non-family households are more likely to value location—proximity to work, entertainment, etc.—and then size. They are less willing to commute than a family household,' noted Porter. We also have to look at the growing population of Americans who intend to 'age in place,' that is, the baby boomers who are moving out of the big family homes but not into what we used to call 'retirement homes.' Now they're 'active adult communities,' with smaller one-story homes. That demographic, though, plays against a growing demographic of Hispanic Americans. The average Hispanic household is statistically larger than the national average.

So what should home builders and housing watchers take from all this?

Obviously there are and always will be large families in the suburbs who want to live in big houses. There will always be wealthy Americans who desire to live in spaces that far exceed their needs. But the shift in household size cannot simply be considered anecdotal. When you couple that shift with a much-changed mortgage market, one that prices so many more Americans out of larger, move-up homes, you have to be concerned about what happens to the stock of larger homes, old and new. Do we see huge price reductions as demand falters?

Existing homes sales up

Existing homes increased 2.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.36 million in January from a downwardly revised 5.22 million in December, and are 5.3 percent above the 5.09 million level in January 2010. This is the first time in seven months that sales activity was higher than a year earlier. A parallel NAR practitioner survey2 shows first-time buyers purchased 29 percent of homes in January, down from 33 percent in December and 40 percent in January 2010 when an extended tax credit was in place. Investors accounted for 23 percent of purchases in January, up from 20 percent in December and 17 percent in January 2010; the balance of sales were to repeat buyers. All-cash sales rose to 32 percent in January from 29 percent in December and 26 percent in January 2010. All-cash purchases are at the highest level since NAR started measuring these purchases monthly in October 2008, when they accounted for 15 percent of the market. The average of all-cash deals was
20 percent in 2009, rising to 28 percent last year.

The national median existing-home price3 for all housing types was $158,800 in January, down 3.7 percent from January 2010. Distressed homes edged up to a 37 percent market share in January from 36 percent in December; it was 38 percent in January 2010. Total housing inventory at the end of January fell 5.1 percent to 3.38 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 7.6-month supply4 at the current sales pace, down from an 8.2-month supply in December. The inventory supply is at the lowest level since December 2009 when there was a 7.3-month supply. Single-family home sales rose 2.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.69 million in January from 4.58 million in December, and are 4.9 percent higher than the 4.47 million level in January 2010. The median existing single-family home price was $159,400 in January, down 2.7 percent from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales increased 4.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 670,000 in January from 640,000 in December, and are 7.9 percent above the 621,000-unit pace one year ago. The median existing condo price5 was $154,900 in January, which is 10.2 percent below January 2010. Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 4.6 percent to an annual pace of 830,000 in January from a spike in December and are 1.2 percent below January 2010.

The median price in the Northeast was $236,500, which is 4.0 percent below a year ago. Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 1.8 percent in January to a level of 1.14 million and are 3.6 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $126,300, which is 3.2 percent below January 2010. In the South, existing-home sales increased 3.6 percent to an annual pace of 2.02 million in January and are 8.0 percent higher than January 2010. The median price in the South was $136,600, down 2.1 percent from a year ago. Existing-home sales in the West rose 7.9 percent to an annual level of 1.37 million in January and are 7.0 percent above January 2010. The median price in the West was $193,200, down 5.7 percent from a year ago.

MBA - foreclosures up delinquencies down

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 8.22% of all loans outstanding as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2010, a decrease of 91 basis points from the third quarter of 2010, and a decrease of 125 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. The non-seasonally adjusted delinquency rate decreased 46 basis points to 8.93% this quarter from 9.39% last quarter. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the fourth quarter was 1.27%, down seven basis points from last quarter and up seven basis points from one year ago. The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure.

The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the fourth quarter was 4.63%, up 24 basis points from the third quarter of 2010 and up five basis points from one year ago. The serious delinquency rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 8.57%, a decrease of 13 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 110 basis points from the fourth quarter of last year. The combined percentage of loans in foreclosure or at least one payment past due was 13.56% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, a 22 basis point decline from 13.78% last quarter.

Jay Brinkmann, MBA's chief economist said "These latest delinquency numbers represent significant, across the board decreases in mortgage delinquency rates in the US. Total delinquencies, which exclude loans in the process of foreclosure, are now at their lowest level since the end of 2008. Mortgages only one payment past due are now at the lowest level since the end of 2007, the very beginning of the recession. Perhaps most importantly, loans three payments (90 days) or more past due have fallen from an all-time high delinquency rate of 5.02% at the end of the first quarter of 2010 to 3.63% at the end of the fourth quarter of 2010, a drop of 139 basis points or almost 28% over the course of the year. Every state but two saw a drop in the 90-plus day delinquency rate and the two increases were negligible."

"While delinquency and foreclosure rates are still well above historical norms, we have clearly turned the corner. Despite continued high levels of unemployment, the economy did add over 1.2 million private sector jobs during 2010 and, after remaining stubbornly high during the first half of 2010, first time claims for unemployment insurance fell during the second half of the year. Absent a significant economic reversal, the delinquency picture should continue to improve during 2011, Brinkmann said.

Mike Fratantoni, MBA's vice president for single family research said "While the foreclosure starts rate fell during the fourth quarter, the percentage of loans in foreclosure rose to equal the all-time high. The foreclosure inventory rate captures loans from the point of the foreclosure referral to exit from the foreclosure process, either through a cure (perhaps through a modification), a short sale or deed in lieu, or through a foreclosure sale. As we predicted last quarter, the percentage of loans in the foreclosure process increased in the fourth quarter, largely due to the foreclosure paperwork issues that were being addressed in September and October. These issues caused a temporary halt in foreclosure sales, particularly in states with judicial foreclosure regimes, such as New Jersey, Florida, and Illinois.

With fewer loans exiting the foreclosure process through sales, the foreclosure inventory rate naturally increased, even as fewer foreclosure starts meant that fewer loans entered the foreclosure process in the fourth quarter." "The share of loans in foreclosure in California and Florida combined was 36.0%, a decrease from 37.3% in the third quarter, and 39.3% a year ago. Over 24% of the loans in Florida are one payment or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, the highest rate in the nation, followed by Nevada at over 22%, compared to an average of 13.6% for the nation. Only eleven states saw an increase in their foreclosure start rate with Maryland seeing the largest increase."

President tries to curb mortgage interest rate deduction

The president proposed in his budget to curtail high-income earners' tax deduction for mortgage interest payments and charitable contributions. Under his proposal, taxpayers in the 33% and 35% tax brackets would only be able to deduct their contributions and mortgage interest payments at the 28% rate. It would affect those with taxable income of $250,000 and up and bring in $321 billion over 10 years, according to the White House. The Obama administration, as well as several tax and deficit commissions, have called for limiting or eliminating the deductions in the past. But the proposals have gone nowhere and the same outcome is expected this year. Still, the real estate industry and non-profit sector are not taking any chances. They are making it clear to both Congress and the White House that they strongly oppose any limits to the deductions.

The industry is concerned that capping the deduction will hurt the housing market, which continues to stumble. The tax break makes homeownership more affordable, they argue. This is the second time in recent months that the Obama administration has recommended curtailing the deduction, which costs the Treasury Department an estimated $131 billion a year. In December, a presidential debt panel recommended turning the itemized deduction in to a 12% non-refundable tax credit available to everyone. It would also cut the size of eligible mortgages in half to up to $500,000. "NAR will remain vigilant in opposing any plan that modifies or excludes the deductibility of mortgage interest," National Association of Realtors President Ron Phipps said at the time.

New sales contracts on the increase; median price still holding steady

(December 13, 2010 – Orlando, FL) Members of the Orlando Regional REALTOR Association reported an increase in the number of home-sale contracts they filed in November, with 3,243 newly filed contracts topping last November’s tally of 3,023 by 7.28 percent.

The area’s pending sales statistic — like new contracts — is also an indicator of future sales activity. A total of 8,998 homes are currently under contract and awaiting closing. This number is also an increase (of 4.23 percent) over the 8,633 homes that were under contract in November 2009.

Members of ORRA recorded completed sales on 1,848 homes in November, which is a 20.65 percent decrease over the November 2009 tally of 2,329 sales. To date, Orlando area home sales are up 21.55 percent over this time in 2009.

“Uneven sales patterns are to be expected over the next months,” explains ORRA Chairman of the Board Mike McGraw, McGraw Real Estate Services. “We are experiencing aftershocks from slowdowns caused by the homebuyer tax credit ending and the temporary foreclosure stoppage. But at the same time, buyers who are responding to record-low interest rates and enticingly low home prices are contributing to a push-pull effect on Orlando’s housing market.”

The median sales price of all homes sold in the Orlando area held steady at $105,000 during November, the third month in a row. According to ORRA the current median price remains 5.11 percent higher than the $99,900 median price recorded in August 2010 and is 14.63 percent below the median price of $123,000 recorded in November 2009.

The median price for “normal” existing homes – i.e., those that are neither a short sale nor a foreclosure – sold in November is $159,900. The median price for bank-owned sales is $78,101 and the median price for short sales is $99,950. The lower median prices of bank-owned and short sales, which accounted for 66.67 percent of all sales in November, exert a downward influence on the overall median price.

The Orlando affordability index decreased to 261.95 percent in November. (An affordability index of 99 percent means that buyers earning the state-reported median income are 1 percent short of the income necessary to purchase a median-priced home. Conversely, an affordability index that is over 100 means that median-income earners make more than is necessary to qualify for a median-priced home.) Buyers who earn the reported median income of $53,390 can qualify to purchase one of 9,027 homes in Orange and Seminole counties currently listed in the local multiple listing service for $275,049 or less.

First-time homebuyer affordability in November decreased to 186.28 percent. First-time buyers who earn the reported median income of $36,305 can qualify to purchase one of 6,493 homes in Orange and Seminole counties currently listed in the local multiple listing service for $166,252 or less.

Homes of all types spent an average of 97 days on the market before coming under contract in November 2010, and the average home sold for 94.08 percent of its listing price. In November 2009 those numbers were 85 and 94.90 percent, respectively. The area’s average interest rate increased in November to 4.48 percent.

Inventory

There are currently 15,192 homes available for purchase through the MLS. Inventory decreased by 249 homes (1.61 percent) from October 2010, which means that 249 more homes exited the market than entered the market. The November 2010 inventory level is 5.06 percent lower than it was in November 2009 (16,002). The current pace of sales translates into 8.22 months of supply; November 2009 recorded 6.87 months of supply.

There are 12,083 single-family homes currently listed in the MLS, a number that is 2.85 percent more than the 11,748 single-family homes listed in November of last year. Condos currently make up 1,871 offerings in the MLS, while duplexes/town homes/villas make up the remaining 1,238.

Condos and Town Homes/Duplexes/Villas

The sales of condos in the Orlando area decreased by 6.45 percent in November when compared to November of 2009 and decreased by 16.59 percent compared to October of this year. To date, condo sales are up 53.77 percent (6,031 condos sold to date in 2010, compared to 3,922 by this time in 2009).

The most (193) condos in a single price category that changed hands in October were yet again in the $1 - $50,000 price range, a year-long trend that accounts for 54.50 percent of all condo sales. The next greatest range, with 12.09 percent of this year’s condo sales, is the $50,000 - $60,000 category.

Orlando homebuyers purchased 178 duplexes, town homes, and villas in November 2010, which is a 24.89 percent decline from November 2009 when 237 of these alternative housing types were purchased.

MSA Numbers

Sales of existing homes within the entire Orlando MSA (Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties) in November were down by 19.13 percent when compared to November of 2009. Throughout the MSA, 2,295 homes were sold in November 2010 compared with 2,838 in November 2009.

To date, sales throughout the MSA are 16.72 percent above this time in 2009 with 31,988 homes exchanging hands compared to 27,406. Each individual county’s year-to-date sales comparisons are as follows:

Lake: 2.06 percent above 2009 (3,827 homes sold to date in 2010 compared to 3,728 in 2009);
Orange: 18.17 percent above 2009 (17,223 homes sold to date in 2010 compared to 14,575 in 2009);
Osceola: 12.12 percent above 2009 (5,774 homes sold to date in 2010 compared to 5150 in 2009); and
Seminole: 30.63 percent above 2009 (5,164 sold to date in 2010 compared to 3,953 in 2009).

For detailed statistical reports, please visit www.orlrealtor.com and click on “Housing Statistics” on the top menu bar. This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association or its Multiple Listing Service (MLS). Neither the association nor its MLS guarantees or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the association or its MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. Due to late closings, an adjustment is necessary to record those closings posted after our reporting date.

ORRA REALTOR® sales, referred to as the core market, represent all sales by members of the Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association, not necessarily those sales strictly in Orange and Seminole counties. Note that statistics released each month may be revised in the future as new data is received.

Orlando MSA numbers reflect sales of homes located in Orange, Seminole, Osceola, and Lake counties by members of any Realtor® association, not just members of ORRA.

Orlando homes sales increase as affordability hits all-time high

September 10, 2010 – Orlando, FL) Members of the Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association reported completed sales on 2,429 homes in August, which is a 10.91 percent increase over the August 2009 mark of 2,109. To date, Orlando area home sales are up 36.12 percent over this time in 2009.

“As expected, sales have been softer following the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit,” explains ORRA Chairman of the Board Kathleen Gallagher McIver, RE/MAX Town & Country Realty. “However, since May, the number of new contracts has continued to climb as consumers take advantage of record-low mortgage rates and historically high housing affordability.”

The number of new contracts filed in August 2010 (3,892) represents an increase of 17.09 percent more than were filed in August 2009 (3,324). The area’s pending sales statistic — also an indicator of future sales activity – is likewise remaining at a record high with 8.60 percent more homes (8,945) under contract and awaiting closing in August of this year than in August of last year (8,237).

The median price of all existing homes combined sold in August 2010 decreased 21.95 percent to $99,900 from the $128,000 recorded in August 2009. August 2010’s median price is a decrease of 8.10 percent compared to July 2010’s median of $108,700.

“With foreclosures and short sales dominating the market, the median price continues to be lowered,” says Gallagher McIver. “Plus, the rise in popularity of lower-priced condominiums has put additional downward pressure on prices.” Gallagher McIver adds that one in four home sales during the month of August was a condo sale, and the median price for all August condo sales was $44,000.

The median price for “normal” sales is $165,900 (down 5.20 percent from last month’s $175,000). The median price for bank-owned sales is $70,000 (down 2.78 percent from last month’s $72,000), and the median price for short sales is $100,000 (down from last month’s $116,000).

Of the 2,429 sales in August, 691 “normal” sales accounted for 28.45 percent of all sales, while 1,187 bank-owned and 551 short sales made up 71.55 percent.

The Orlando affordability index increased to 270.30 percent in August. (An affordability index of 99 percent means that buyers earning the state-reported median income are 1 percent short of the income necessary to purchase a median-priced home. Conversely, an affordability index that is over 100 means that median-income earners make more than is necessary to qualify for a median-priced home.) Buyers who earn the reported median income of $53,219 can qualify to purchase one of 9,932 homes in Orange and Seminole counties currently listed in the local multiple listing service for $270,031 or less.

First-time homebuyer affordability in August increased to 192.21 percent. First-time buyers who earn the reported median income of $36,189 can qualify to purchase one of 6,885 homes in Orange and Seminole counties currently listed in the local multiple listing service for $163,219 or less.

Homes of all types spent an average of 84 days on the market before coming under contract in August 2010, and the average home sold for 95.04 percent of its listing price. In August 2009 those numbers were 94 and 94.44 percent, respectively. The area’s average interest rate decreased in August to 4.61 percent.


Inventory

There are currently 16,535 homes available for purchase through the MLS. Inventory decreased by 28 homes from July 2010, which means that 28 more homes exited the market than entered the market. The August 2010 inventory level is 1.06 percent higher than it was in August 2009 (16,361). The current pace of sales translates into 6.81 months of supply; August 2009 recorded 7.47 months of supply.

There are 12,769 single-family homes currently listed in the MLS, a number that is 859 (7.21 percent) more than in August of last year. Condos currently make up 2,342 offerings in the MLS, while duplexes/town homes/villas make up the remaining 1,424.


Condos and Town Homes/Duplexes/Villas

August when compared to August of 2009 and increased by 5.89 percent compared to July of this year. To date, condo sales are up 74.09 percent (4,596 condos sold to date in 2010, compared to 2,640 by this time in 2009).

The most (361) condos in a single price category that changed hands in August were yet again in the $1 - $50,000 price range, which accounted for 57.39 percent of all condo sales.

Orlando homebuyers purchased 208 duplexes, town homes, and villas in August 2010, which is a 1.96 percent increase from August 2009 when 204 of these alternative housing types were purchased.